Cathy Dobson
Three-quarters of Sarnia’s employers downsized their workforce over the past year, but some have begun rehiring, according to two studies to be released next month.
New research indicates some local jobs are likely gone forever, but new ones will be created through the permanent changes businesses make after the pandemic.
Post-pandemic jobs that rely heavily on digital literacy will be in high demand, as will jobs in early childhood education, health care, cybersecurity, food processing and skilled trades, according to the Sarnia Lambton Workforce Development Board (SLWDB).
It’s estimated a full economic recovery will take at least three years. And that’s a conservative estimate, said Meghan Realesmith, who worked on two extensive SLWDB studies to determine how the local workforce is faring through COVID-19 and beyond.
“There’s still a lot of hesitation out there but I also see signs of hope,” said Realesmith. “We know different skills will be needed because part of the workforce is permanently shifting to digital (online) work.
“We’re going to need training programs and apprenticeships.”
Seventy-six per cent of 279 employers interviewed for the annual Employer One Survey said in January they had employee layoffs in 2020. By comparison, 28% reported losing employees in 2019 and most of those were retirements.
“That’s a huge jump,” said Realesmith. “It’s not unexpected but it tells you what’s really happening out there because of the pandemic.”
Some of the study results were predictable, but this is the first time hard facts and figures have been collected, she said.
The virus’ first wave caused unprecedented job loss in Sarnia-Lambton when the first lockdown abruptly closed businesses and schools. By June, unemployment had soared to a record 16.8% from 6.5% in January.
And many local residents who did hang on to their jobs had their hours reduced.
The local employment picture improved when the lockdown lifted and businesses were allowed to open up. But the Employer One survey conducted in December and January found 53% of businesses still aren’t operating at pre-pandemic levels.
“We know there are many small businesses on the brink and just trying to hold on,” said Realesmith. “Anyone who has survived this is a champion.”
As damaging as the second wave has been to local jobs, it wasn’t as devastating as the first wave.
By the second lockdown in December, many businesses had learned how to pivot to online or curbside service. Consumer confidence improved as the virus was better understood and safety measures were put in place, said Realesmith.
Encouraging signs include the construction sector, which is already bouncing back, and Sarnia’s manufacturing and petrochemical sectors, which are stable.
A devastated hotel industry is looking to rehire so it can reopen this summer, said Realesmith.
January’s unemployment rate for Sarnia is not yet available but is expected to be around 10%.
While far from the pre-pandemic levels of about 5%, it’s a big improvement over last spring, said Mikelle Bryson-Campbell, interim SLWDB executive director.
“I really think we’ve got a great snapshot of what the pandemic is doing to the workforce and what we need to do to get back on our feet,” she said.
The studies show the community is benefiting from federal and provincial support, as well as the shop-local movement, said Realesmith.
“But sole proprietorships feel very disappointed with government programs. All the paperwork is discouraging for them and they feel left out in the cold.”
For thousands of local residents who lost jobs during the pandemic, Realesmith said the studies paint a hopeful picture.
“We don’t know exactly what jobs have permanently disappeared,” she said. “But we know there are other occupations that will be in high demand.
“There will be a job if you want it.”